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U.S. crude oil production is forecast to rise more than previously thought in 2023, while global oil inventories are expected to fall after Saudi Arabia extended output cuts this month, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.
U.S. crude output is due to rise by 870,000 bpd in 2023 to 12.78 million barrels, up from a forecast from last month of an 850,000 bpd increase. In 2024 oil output is expected to rise by 380,000 barrels per day to 13.16 million bpd.
Global oil stockpiles are forecast to fall by 200,000 bpd in the fourth quarter of 2023, the EIA said, after Saudi Arabia said it would continue its voluntary crude oil production cut of 1 million bpd through the end of this year. Previously, the voluntary cut was set to expire at the end of September.
The decline in inventories should increase the price of the international benchmark Brent contract to an average of $93 per barrel during the fourth quarter, up from the $86 per barrel average in August, the EIA said.
The Brent price is expected to ease to an average of $87 per barrel by the second half of 2024 as inventories rise, it added.
(Reuters – Reporting by Stephanie Kelly, editing by Deepa Babington)